Tuesday 6 January 2015

Quindell - Medium Term Technical Analysis

Good morning,


Once again, having discussed this before many times I am going to keep this to a simple bullet pointed list with sources for people who find them useful.


Medium Term Technical Analysis:



  • Most of this is based around the data points I get from my custom daily algorithmic trading system (still in alpha testing - but the results are nevertheless accurate when back-checked). 

  • A brief overview of the system can be found here, although it has evolved significantly since this was written (NB: it excludes todays intra-daily data): 

  1. http://themaskedstocktrader.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/my-experience-with-quantitative-finance.html

    • To put the system in context regarding Quindell specifically, it would have made 395.729% only going long on Quindell since 11/02/2014, so it does do a reasonably good job overall at making the correct decisions.

Technical Signals:


Simple Fibonacci Moving Averages:
  • 3 day crossed 8 day
  • 3 day crossed 21 day
  • 5 day crossed 21 day
  • 8 day crossed 21 day
A close above 49p today (06/01/2015) would be another illustration of the continuation of the bullish momentum in a time period below that of 34 days - the 34 day SMA sits as of yesterday at 48.97p.


MACD (12, 26, 9, 1d):
  • The MACD line has been above the EMA now for 25 days and while this doesn't sound significant it is a major signal of reversing momentum to the upside.
  • This is confirmed or caused by the institutional buying and the partial short closure over late November and December.


I'm going to conclude here and say that although the technical signals are certainly looking very positive, we must be very careful, because Quindell has a tendency to be manipulated by short sellers in the market who are undoubtedly playing the SETS system of trading. 


Enjoy,

The Masked Stock Trader


Sources:

  1. https://www.google.co.uk/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=0&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1420561800000&chddm=511&chddi=120&chls=CandleStick&q=LON%3AQPP&ntsp=1&fct=big&ei=yKCrVID0A-eqwAOb3ICICg
  2. http://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BMTS9H89/all
  3. http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-buying.html?t=QPP&region=gbr&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA



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